Statistics

The Elderly population is forecast to grow exponentially over the next 25 years. This is not only due to successes in combating preventable deaths and improvements in Public Health and Welfare provision, but also a combination of falling birth rates, reducing effective retirement ages and the effect of post-war baby booms which is leading to a projected increase in the ratio of pensioners to the number of people of working age.

This all has profound implications for communities, governments, service providers and for Elderly people themselves. The effects of an ageing population will impact housing markets, social services, health care and recreation systems.

As people get older and retire from the labour market, their sources of income change. 80% of the income for 50 year olds, comes from employment / self employment. This falls to just 10% with people in their 70’s. State benefits are the main source of income at this point. (Office of National Statistics report – Focus on Older People Nov 2005)

The government is committed to improving care for older people. The National Service Framework (NSF) for Older People sets out a program for action and reform to address older people's needs and to deliver higher quality services. It is the key vehicle for ensuring that the needs of older people are at the heart of the reform program for health and social services.

Overall population ageing is forecast to continue until about 2040. At this point the larger numbers of people born in the decades after the 2nd world war, will have reached pensionable age. The working age population will be lower, reflecting the smaller numbers of people born since then. From a monetary perspective a reduction in the number of people of working age, will impact economic growth rates and hence GDP. An increase in the retired and elderly populations will also increase the need for pensions, healthcare and long term care, just at the point of diminishing contributions. Hence the need for radical change to the public provision systems.

The government needs to promote a longer working life for people, allowing them to work beyond the standard retirement age if they so desire. Age discrimination laws and standardized retirement ages for men and women are already in place, but much more will be done in the next few years, including reducing reliance on benefits and encouraging personal pension provision.

Another area of concern is Housing. The old Housing Fitness Standard was introduced in 1989 but was based on criteria first introduced some 80 years ago. This is now replaced with an evidence based risk assessment procedure called The Housing Health and Safety Rating System. This process sets out pre-determined requirements and is judged against the most vulnerable potential occupant at the property. The HHSRS provides for various courses of action depending on the assessment results.

Interestingly, the UK is not alone in having an ageing population. Most of the western world and China are facing similar challenges. In fact, the situation in the UK is less severe than in many other countries. Italy and Japan are identified as the countries facing the biggest challenges.

The following data can be updated and verified on the National Statistics Online web site www.statistics.gov.uk and the CBI.

In 2003 20 million people were aged over 50.
In 2031 this is projected to be 27 million.

In 2003 -5, a man of 65 could expect to live for a further 16.6 years, whilst a woman could expect a further 19 years.

In 1971 the average age of a UK resident was 34.1 years. In 2005 it was 38.8 years.

In 1851 average life expectancy for men was 40 and women 44.
In 2002 this was 76 for men and 81 for women.
However, women are likely to have more years in poor health.
In 2001 the expected years lived in poor health from the age of 65 onwards was 4.3 years for men and 5.8 years for women.

In 1960’s there were less than 300 centenarians in the UK.
In 2004 there were over 6000.
Projected for 2036 – 39000.

1950 – 1 in 10 people are over 65.
2005 – 1 in 6 people are over 65.
2036 – Predicted to be 1 in 4.

The proportion of people above pensionable age was 13% in 1971.
This increased to 16% in 2005.
Even allowing for the increase in pensionable age of women to 65 between 2010 and 2020, this proportion is forecast to increase to 23 % by 2031.

57% of total benefit expenditure and 38% of Hospital and Community Health expenditure currently goes on those over pensionable age.